London Playbook PM: Your country needs you (and your taxes)

Good afternoon.
— Keir Starmer sought to manage expectations ahead of a “painful” budget, arguing the Tories left a “rot” at the heart of the British state.
— He dismissed concerns about giving civil service jobs and No.10 passes to Labour donors.
— Scoop: The PM’s approval rating plummeted to a record low of -16, according to a new poll.
— Starmer is preparing to leave for Berlin where he will meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
— Liz Truss considered scrapping all NHS cancer treatments, according to a new book.
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YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU (AND YOUR TAXES): The public has been warned: Keir Starmer has some “big asks” for them in his mission to fix Britain.
Light and shade: As the sun poked through a film of cloud over the Downing Street garden this morning, the PM delivered a Vibes Speech full of expectation management about his first term in government, while also setting the stage for the next election campaign. It was all, in short, a bit doom and gloom. Watch the whole thing here.
Difficult second album: As trailed over the weekend, Starmer gave a downbeat address about things getting worse before improving, blaming the Tories for torching the curtains before being booted out of government. “When there is a deep rot deep in the heart of a structure, you can’t just cover it up,” he said. “You can’t tinker or rely on quick fixes. You have to overhaul the entire thing. Tackle it at root. Even if it’s harder work and takes more time.”
Specific examples … big picture: Starmer used the riots in the wake of the Southport attack, as well as the crisis in prison places and Britain’s floundering public services to paint a picture of a broken nation with a “societal black hole” that needs fixing.
But but but … he also used the public response to the riots — communities cleaning up their streets and helping each other back onto their feet — to suggest Britain has the hope and grit to make it through.
The crucial line … was the bit setting up the tax rises coming in the Budget — i.e. the bit Starmer needs the public’s help with.
Ask, and the exchequer shall receive: “There is a budget coming in October, and it’s going to be painful — we have no other choice, given the situation that we’re in,” he declared. “Those with the broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden … but just as when I responded to the riots, I’ll have to turn to the country and make big asks of you as well, to accept short-term pain for long-term good, the difficult trade off for the genuine solution.”
Translation: Expect taxes to rise, alongside measures akin to scaling back the winter fuel benefit for pensioners, which Rachel Reeves announced last month and which is giving Labour MPs the willies. “I didn’t want to means test the winter fuel payment,” Starmer said. “But it was a choice we had to take.” On taxes, IFS boss Paul Johnson noted how the government has boxed itself in after ruling out numerous useful options.
Spare a thought for … poor old Finance Minister James Murray, who is doing a few afternoon broadcast round interviews right now refusing to answer (admittedly pointless) questions about which taxes will rise and which spending could be cut.
Here are a few ideas for lines he could take: “This is the legacy of [fourteen] years of fiscal irresponsibility,” he could argue. “If we fail to tackle the deficit we inherited from the previous government, the consequences could be disastrous. If we don’t get on top of our debt, every family in Britain will be poorer and the dreams of millions of young people will be dashed.” Sound familiar? It’s from the speech George Osborne made when the Tories and Lib Dems entered government in 2010. These political games and expectation management gambits are destined to repeat themselves forever, it seems.
In the rose garden where it happened: Playbook PM was among the assembled crowd of reporters and members of the public the No.10 operation invited to Downing Street to listen to Starmer’s Big Speech this morning. People Starmer met on the campaign trail, and who he wanted to show he hasn’t forgotten, turned up in their smartest threads for the occasion. The clanking of distant scaffolding and the rustle of leaves in the breeze served as the backdrop, as the PM spoke beneath the giant No.10 garden trees. The smell of foliage lingered in the air.
Performative politics is over, declares politician, in performance: Starmer stood at a lectern brandishing the “fixing the foundations” slogan the government has adopted, and explained he was holding the speech in the Rose Garden (which contains a mere smattering of roses) to remind the public about the lockdown parties that went on there and insist this government is different. Political theatre, much?
The problem is: Although the standards allegations surrounding the Labour government so far pale in comparison to those under Boris Johnson, Starmer doesn’t seem to understand that the public might not think much of him handing civil service jobs and Downing Street passes to his political donors.
Indeed: The prime minister dismissed the cases revealed by the media in recent weeks and said he would not “take lectures” from his political opponents, adding: “I’m determined to have the right people in the right places.” He also insisted all the proper appointments procedures had been followed — which doesn’t amount to much if the procedures aren’t fit for purpose.
Remember: All politicians like to hold their opponents to higher standards than they hold themselves. Ad infinitum.
Need another example? Just look at the Tories, who after defending the government line about jobs and favors for cronies under Boris Johnson, appear to have learned what the words “standards” and “ethics” mean now it’s Labour under the microscope.
The problem for Starmer is … the public don’t see government ethics as a Conservative/Labour question, but a politics and government question which taints all parties, as More in Common U.K. Director Luke Tryl explains in this thread. Playbook PM can reveal Starmer’s approval rating, per More in Common, has dropped to -16 — far lower even than before the election. Did the honeymoon ever start?
Better late than never: The departure of Labour donor Ian Corfield from his civil service role, and the insistence from Starmer that his promised new ethics watchdog will have at least some powers, suggest No.10 might have learned its lesson after a few bad headlines. Starmer pledged that the so-called Ethics and Integrity Commission will have the power to launch its own investigations — something the Tories were too scared to let the standards watchdogs do. But he wouldn’t offer a timetable for its creation.
Oh and … it’s still not clear whether the new government will appoint a new corruption adviser — after the Conservatives left the role vacant for two years. Playbook PM wanted to ask Starmer about it, and stuck a hand up throughout the Q&A after his speech, but the PM refused to deviate from the list of reporters his aides decided should ask the questions. Pic here. GB News Pol Ed Chris Hope has joined the battle now he’s on the wrong side of the list regime (more on that below).
Still not a performance, honest: Once the event was over, Starmer moved forward to chat to some of the public representatives in the crowd. As he moved along the front row, an aide told one woman to stand back because she was blocking the camera shot of the PM being a nice, normal bloke.
Is he back from the States? Interim leader of the opposition Rishi Sunak tweeted (for the first time since the start of August) in response to the Starmer speech this morning. “Keir Starmer’s speech today was the clearest indication of what Labour has been planning to do all along — raise your taxes,” he said — a predictable enough response that appears to forget the public dismissing the Conservative warnings at the election about Labour plotting to raise taxes.
Who wore it best? Meanwhile, the Conservative contenders to replace Sunak competed over who could do the best LOTO impression. “Sir Keir is shamelessly attempting to rewrite history,” Robert Jenrick said about the Labour attacks on the mess inherited from the Tories. “Keir Starmer’s speech this morning was another shameless attempt to mislead the public on the state of the economy,” added Priti Patel on a similar theme.
And there’s more: James Cleverly was a bit more creative, with: “More meaningless drivel from Keir Starmer today as he tries to distract from his latest cronyism row.” Tom Tugendhat took a more poetic tone, with: “Sir Keir Starmer’s hollow words and pessimism are a council [sic] of despair, not hope.” Few will be surprised that Kemi Badenoch went for a more personal dig about Starmer not being as smart as she is: “Keir Starmer’s speech today showed a surprising amount of ignorance from the get-go.” Mel Stride went with: “Starmer is trying to justify his broken promises.”
Case for the defense: When the Radio 4 World at One show asked for a Labour minister to talk about the Starmer speech this afternoon, the government offered none other than Labour Together boss (and former Shadow Cabinet Starmtrooper) Jon Ashworth. Here he is giving his two cents.
ONTO THE NEXT JOB: Keir Starmer is preparing to take off for Berlin this evening, where he will meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz before attending the paralympics opening ceremony in Paris tomorrow.
BREXIT DIVIDEND LATEST: Ministers are ploughing another £10.5 million into helping ports prepare for new post-Brexit EU border checks, the government announced this morning. It supplied the urgent cash amid fears of big queues at ports, as well as to use the Eurostar and Eurotunnel, when the new rules come in during the fall. More details here.
BONKERS LIZ-T OF OPTIONS: Five-minute Prime Minister Liz Truss considered scrapping all cancer treatment on the NHS in desperate discussions about spending cuts to restore market confidence in the wake of her chaotic maxi-budget, according to the new Anthony Seldon book about her brief premiership. Simon Walters got the scoop in the Independent, which is littered with other amusing lines about the Truss farce too.
DEFINITELY … MAYBE ON TOP OF THE NEWS: “Let’s see what happens with Oasis,” Keir Starmer said when Sun hack Jack Elsom asked for his take on Oasis getting back together. It wasn’t much of an answer, but the question was pure gold, and got a laugh out of the PM: “You spent a lot of time today ‘Looking Back in Anger’ – but are you happy that Oasis have decided to reform on your watch?” Clip here.
Now read this: POLITICO’s Paul Dallison rounded up all the political wit (or sh*t) from the Gallagher duo over the decades.
More creative points: Conservative leadership hopeful James Cleverly issued his own campaign-themed take on the Oasis announcement this morning. See here.
WELCOME TO THE CLUB: GB News Pol Ed Christopher Hope joined the Playbook PM hand-raising protest at the Keir Starmer press conference, after not being granted a question since Labour entered government. He tweeted about it here. But Labour MP for Southport Patrick Hurley was glad the broadcaster was snubbed, after its star presenter Nigel Farage helped stoked conspiracist nonsense around the Southport attack.
DOING THE ROUNDS: “Is that Beth Rigby on the piano?” numerous Westminster watchers were asking this afternoon in response to an old Top of the Pops clip on Twitter.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rescued a hostage named Kaid Farhan Elkadi who was kidnapped by Hamas on October 7 and taken into Gaza. The 52-year-old man was rescued in a “complex operation in the southern Gaza Strip,” the IDF said, and is in a stable condition undergoing medical checks in hospital. The BBC has further information.
Meanwhile in Gaza: The U.N. said its ability to operate has been hindered by numerous Israeli evacuation orders which have moved Palestinians into smaller and more remote areas as it tries to contain a polio outbreak — via the Guardian. Gaza’s health authorities said 22 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli military strikes in central and southern areas, as Reuters reports.
UKRAINE UPDATE: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Ukraine successfully tested its first domestically produced ballistic missile, telling reporters at the Ukraine 2024 Independence forum in Kyiv: “It may be too early to talk about it but I want to share it with you.” The Telegraph has more.
On the frontline: Kyiv’s Chief Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said 594 prisoners of war were captured during its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, claiming the operation distracted a “significant number of Russian soldiers.” My colleagues Elena Giordano and Veronika Melkozerova have the details.
IN CHINA: U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s senior foreign policy official Wang Yi over two days in Beijing to discuss how to ensure economic competition between the two nations does not develop into conflict. More from AP News.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), BBC News at Six and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) all lead on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s speech warning the October budget will be “painful.”
Ben Kentish at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury James Murray (5.20 p.m.) … former Victims’ Commissioner for England and Wales Vera Baird (6.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): James Murray … Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Paul Johnson … HM Chief Inspector of Prisons Charlie Taylor … former Royal College of General Practitioners President Clare Gerada.
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): James Murray (5.05 p.m.).
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Resolution Foundation Research Director James Smith (5.30 p.m.) … former Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Peter Lerner (5.45 p.m.).
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Labour MEP Siôn Simon.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Tory MP John Redwood … former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Labour MP Stephen Pound.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Former Tory MP Simon Clarke.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): PolHome’s Adam Payne and Nadine Batchelor-Hunt.
BRATWURST IN ARMS: The PM is in Berlin meeting German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and hosting a joint press conference in the morning. He will then head to Paris for the opening ceremony of the paralympics.
WHAT ELSE THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is in Scotland to chat growth.
STAT OF THE NATION: The number of workless households is revealed for April to June, from the Office for National Statistics at 9.30 a.m.
MORE TWONKS IN COURT: Numerous knuckleheads who took part in riots in the wake of the Southport attack appear in court.
AND ANOTHER TWONK: The bloke who threw things at Nigel Farage during the general election is also due to appear for sentencing.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: It’s recess! Make the most of a quieter Westminster with a stroll around to check out the menus.
NEW GIG: Politics Live programme editor Maddy Trimmer landed a job as Westminster producer for the new Matt Chorley show on Radio 5 Live. Here’s the announcement.
ON THE HUNT: CNN’s Luke McGee is leaving the U.S. broadcaster and looking for new gigs. His tweet here.
ALSO ON THE HUNT: Keir Starmer happens to be looking for a new head of the civil service, which McGee is no doubt well qualified for. ITV’s Robert Peston has the info that a public job ad will go up, as well as some of the latest names in the runners and riders pot.
IF YOU BUILD IT THEY WILL COME: The Despatch Box coffee bar in Portcullis House has been covered over while work to enlarge it takes place. Coffee is instead available at the other end next to the escalators — where a second smaller coffee bar had a brief life during the Theresa May era.
SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO: When will Boris Johnson start producing his paid-per-show GB News content?
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Former Conservative finance SpAd Adam Smith (no — not the economist from the 1700s — on his Substack about whether the so-called “Treasury orthodoxy” actually exists.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Aug. 27 1743 Henry Pelham became prime minister — he’s considered to be the third ever British PM. On the same date in 1979 the IRA killed Louis Mountbatten, the queen’s cousin. On the same date in 2020 Ed Davey became leader of the Liberal Democrats.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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