OPINION: Attitudes to foreigners in Germany are hardening and should concern us all

Swapping the national “moanfest” for the cheerier Oktoberfest, columnist Brian Melican looks ahead to what will be the likeliest outcome of Germany’s general election scheduled a year from now – and explains why he and readers of The Local are right to be worried.

Taking a break from moaning about the dire state of the economy, the rail network… well, just about everything, beaming Bavarians are explaining the details of their national dress to tourists from all over the world and, inside the tents, even obnoxious Americans and shouty drunken Brits are given a warm welcome.
So it’s strange to think that, in precisely one year’s time, when I will once again be sat here drinking, eating, and being merry, results will be coming in from the 2025 Bundestag election – and that anything up to a third of German voters might have cast their ballot for anti-immigration populists under security-service surveillance due to far-right tendencies.
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What is the most likely outcome of next September’s election?
This is, of course, assuming that the election happens as scheduled on 28th September 2025. Ahead of this month’s three regional ballots, the three parties in the current coalition were distinctly jumpy and there was a lot of talk of going to the polls earlier than planned.
Then the resignations of the Green party co-leaders jangled nerves again. Yet it seems like the Social Democrat Party (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrat Party (FDP) are grimly determined to serve out the rest of their term until the inevitable electoral drubbing next year.
Quite what form this drubbing will take is still unclear. As we’re all aware, a lot can happen in 365 days.
But on current trends, we know which questions are likely to be relevant: Will the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) get a stonking 30 percent, or “just” 20 percent?
Will it be only the FDP that fails to cross the five percent hurdle, or will even the Greens be biting their nails in fear while I and several thousand others are chomping our way through chicken? And just how many people will be crazy enough to vote for the wacky one-woman-populist outfit — the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) — at a national level?
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This much is already certain, though: there will be no mandate from the voters for continuing the current unloved coalition. And what is almost as certain is that Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), currently polling around 30 percent, will be the biggest party. (As long as he doesn’t get caught on camera using his ivory backscratcher or start saying overtly racist stuff on talk shows again…)
The likelihood, therefore, is that Merz will become Chancellor – with the SPD as unwilling junior partners in a Grand Coalition.
You can work this out by listening to what is not being said by CDU/CSU at the moment.
Markus Söder says he would block a coalition with the Greens (which is unlikely have the numbers anyway), Friedrich Merz has been uncompromising about BSW, and no-one is ready to break the taboo and work with the AfD (just yet). When it comes to the prospect of governing with the SPD, however, the silence is deafening – and telling. For in terms both of parliamentary arithmetic and political suitability, a coalition with the SPD will probably be the only option.
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What will CDU-led government mean?
If this whole set-up sounds familiar, that’s because it’s very similar to 2017. This won’t, however, be a re-run of the unambitious, uncontroversial Grand Coalitions under Angela Merkel. Friedrich Merz has put Conservative back into the CDU with a capital C – and is aiming to stop right-of-centre voters going to the AfD. Hence his xenophobic dog whistling and uncharitable stance on social welfare.
So expect a lot more talk in the coming months about restricting the right to asylum, curbing dual nationality, and cutting benefits, along with plenty of mood-music about how everyone is too lazy and needs to work longer hours; also, they’ll want to recriminalize cannabis.
READ ALSO: Could Germany’s landmark dual citizenship law be overturned?
When the manifesto comes out, however, it will – like the question of who to govern with – be more important to read what is not in it. Despite all the noise, I don’t expect the CDU to campaign on actually reversing the coalition’s naturalisation legislation, for instance – for two reasons. Firstly, because this wouldn’t necessarily be a guaranteed vote-winner: Germans are more worried about people coming into the country than those already here potentially having two passports. Secondly, there would actually be serious legal and administrative issues.
German law has the concept of Bestandsschutz – i.e. existing status is enshrined – so it’s almost unthinkable that people who are now in good faith and all legality acquiring German citizenship could be forced into relinquishing it whether they have a second nationality or not. We’d have to be in a much darker place for this to happen.
What is far more likely is that the CDU will campaign on changing the process for new citizenship applications: they might put the length of time required in country back up to eight years, for example, and scrap dual citizenship for anyone becoming German from a non-EU country again. This would be a return to the status quo ante – and the SPD might be persuaded to go along with that, but no further.
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The real difference will be felt elsewhere. Friedrich Merz knows that even a lot of SPD supporters, despite having voted for it in 2021, now think that Bürgergeld has become too generous. So expect him to push for increased sanctions and cuts to allowances.
Also, expect more of the curbs to freedom of movement we are seeing now. It is quite astonishing that Germany has, to all intents and purposes, just left the Schengen area – and that’s under an SPD government. A Merz administration will increase the new border checks to keep migrants out and will also turn up the dial even further on deportations. And both measures will be popular.
Yes, there is something odd going on under the surface at this year’s Oktoberfest. At a table of ten Germans, statistically, three of them will be potential AfD voters and, according to a recent survey, eight of them would agree with the statement that there is too much immigration.
READ ALSO: ‘I’m worried for my kids’ – Foreigners in Germany fear rise of far right
Yet here, in the beer gardens, those ten drinkers will happily squeeze together to make space for a couple of Italians, Indians or Indonesians: it’s all smiles and “Welcome to Germany!” Seems everyone’s fine with all the foreigners – as long as they have return tickets from Munich Airport…
It would be unfair to single out Germans on this – most of Europe is seeing an increase in xenophobia – but the hardening of attitudes here is sad. We risk looking unwelcoming to intelligent and informed people from abroad at precisely the same time as we are trying to persuade them to come and work here.
Once all the Bavarian bonhomie is over, I and many others will return to being deeply concerned with how attitudes are changing in Germany.

#Opinion and Analysis
#Politics

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Greetings from sunny Munich, where I’m enjoying my annual excursion to the Oktoberfest. Sat out in the beer gardens, a glass of frothy gold in one hand and a crisply roasted chicken drumstick in the other, it’s hard not to feel deeply satisfied with life in Germany.
This is what we do best: good food, good beer, and good times – all executed with sound engineering and brisk efficiency. In a refreshing contrast to the toxic public discourse, here gemütliches Beisammensein (enjoying each other’s company), is the order of the day.
Taking a break from moaning about the dire state of the economy, the rail network… well, just about everything, beaming Bavarians are explaining the details of their national dress to tourists from all over the world and, inside the tents, even obnoxious Americans and shouty drunken Brits are given a warm welcome.
So it’s strange to think that, in precisely one year’s time, when I will once again be sat here drinking, eating, and being merry, results will be coming in from the 2025 Bundestag election – and that anything up to a third of German voters might have cast their ballot for anti-immigration populists under security-service surveillance due to far-right tendencies.
What is the most likely outcome of next September’s election?
This is, of course, assuming that the election happens as scheduled on 28th September 2025. Ahead of this month’s three regional ballots, the three parties in the current coalition were distinctly jumpy and there was a lot of talk of going to the polls earlier than planned.
Then the resignations of the Green party co-leaders jangled nerves again. Yet it seems like the Social Democrat Party (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrat Party (FDP) are grimly determined to serve out the rest of their term until the inevitable electoral drubbing next year.
Quite what form this drubbing will take is still unclear. As we’re all aware, a lot can happen in 365 days.
But on current trends, we know which questions are likely to be relevant: Will the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) get a stonking 30 percent, or “just” 20 percent?
Will it be only the FDP that fails to cross the five percent hurdle, or will even the Greens be biting their nails in fear while I and several thousand others are chomping our way through chicken? And just how many people will be crazy enough to vote for the wacky one-woman-populist outfit — the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) — at a national level?
This much is already certain, though: there will be no mandate from the voters for continuing the current unloved coalition. And what is almost as certain is that Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), currently polling around 30 percent, will be the biggest party. (As long as he doesn’t get caught on camera using his ivory backscratcher or start saying overtly racist stuff on talk shows again…)
The likelihood, therefore, is that Merz will become Chancellor – with the SPD as unwilling junior partners in a Grand Coalition.
You can work this out by listening to what is not being said by CDU/CSU at the moment.
Markus Söder says he would block a coalition with the Greens (which is unlikely have the numbers anyway), Friedrich Merz has been uncompromising about BSW, and no-one is ready to break the taboo and work with the AfD (just yet). When it comes to the prospect of governing with the SPD, however, the silence is deafening – and telling. For in terms both of parliamentary arithmetic and political suitability, a coalition with the SPD will probably be the only option.
What will CDU-led government mean?
If this whole set-up sounds familiar, that’s because it’s very similar to 2017. This won’t, however, be a re-run of the unambitious, uncontroversial Grand Coalitions under Angela Merkel. Friedrich Merz has put Conservative back into the CDU with a capital C – and is aiming to stop right-of-centre voters going to the AfD. Hence his xenophobic dog whistling and uncharitable stance on social welfare.
So expect a lot more talk in the coming months about restricting the right to asylum, curbing dual nationality, and cutting benefits, along with plenty of mood-music about how everyone is too lazy and needs to work longer hours; also, they’ll want to recriminalize cannabis.
READ ALSO: Could Germany’s landmark dual citizenship law be overturned?
When the manifesto comes out, however, it will – like the question of who to govern with – be more important to read what is not in it. Despite all the noise, I don’t expect the CDU to campaign on actually reversing the coalition’s naturalisation legislation, for instance – for two reasons. Firstly, because this wouldn’t necessarily be a guaranteed vote-winner: Germans are more worried about people coming into the country than those already here potentially having two passports. Secondly, there would actually be serious legal and administrative issues.
German law has the concept of Bestandsschutz – i.e. existing status is enshrined – so it’s almost unthinkable that people who are now in good faith and all legality acquiring German citizenship could be forced into relinquishing it whether they have a second nationality or not. We’d have to be in a much darker place for this to happen.
What is far more likely is that the CDU will campaign on changing the process for new citizenship applications: they might put the length of time required in country back up to eight years, for example, and scrap dual citizenship for anyone becoming German from a non-EU country again. This would be a return to the status quo ante – and the SPD might be persuaded to go along with that, but no further.
The real difference will be felt elsewhere. Friedrich Merz knows that even a lot of SPD supporters, despite having voted for it in 2021, now think that Bürgergeld has become too generous. So expect him to push for increased sanctions and cuts to allowances.
Also, expect more of the curbs to freedom of movement we are seeing now. It is quite astonishing that Germany has, to all intents and purposes, just left the Schengen area – and that’s under an SPD government. A Merz administration will increase the new border checks to keep migrants out and will also turn up the dial even further on deportations. And both measures will be popular.
Yes, there is something odd going on under the surface at this year’s Oktoberfest. At a table of ten Germans, statistically, three of them will be potential AfD voters and, according to a recent survey, eight of them would agree with the statement that there is too much immigration.
READ ALSO: ‘I’m worried for my kids’ – Foreigners in Germany fear rise of far right
Yet here, in the beer gardens, those ten drinkers will happily squeeze together to make space for a couple of Italians, Indians or Indonesians: it’s all smiles and “Welcome to Germany!” Seems everyone’s fine with all the foreigners – as long as they have return tickets from Munich Airport…
It would be unfair to single out Germans on this – most of Europe is seeing an increase in xenophobia – but the hardening of attitudes here is sad. We risk looking unwelcoming to intelligent and informed people from abroad at precisely the same time as we are trying to persuade them to come and work here.
Once all the Bavarian bonhomie is over, I and many others will return to being deeply concerned with how attitudes are changing in Germany.

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